There is plenty of blame to go around in Los Angeles for what has become an ugly season, but despite all of the drama surrounding the franchise, the 2018-19 campaign wouldn’t feel like such a disaster if the Lakers were still on target to make the playoffs. There is one big reason why that’s not the case — the Lakers stink at beating bad teams.
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Saturday night’s loss to the Suns was a low point for LA, dropping the team to 30-33 overall and 4 1/2 games back of the eighth seed in the Western Conference playoff field. That disappointing defeat in Phoenix only continued a season-long trend, though. (UPDATE: The Lakers are now 30-34 after falling to the Clippers on Monday night.)
The Lakers have gone 16-14 against teams under .500 on the season. The losses look like this: Timberwolves (three times), Grizzlies (twice), Magic (twice), Cavs, Hawks, Knicks, Nets, Pelicans, Suns and Wizards. Among the West teams fighting for a postseason berth, the Lakers easily hold the worst mark against sub-.500 opponents.
(All records current as of March 4)
And before anyone starts yelling about LeBron’s injury, yes, obviously that cannot be ignored. However, only four of the Lakers’ 14 losses against teams below .500 came during the stretch in which James didn’t play. Los Angeles fell twice to the Timberwolves, once to the Cavs and once to the Knicks without James available.
LeBron-led squads have typically feasted on lesser challengers dating back to his four-season runs in Miami and Cleveland. In nearly 300 games against below-.500 teams over eight years, James finished with a winning percentage of .798.
It’s clear LeBron hasn’t been able to count on victories against bottom dwellers this time around, especially now that he finds himself in a much deeper conference.
The worst part for the Lakers might be knowing how different the season would look had they taken care of business in just a few of those games. For example, if the losses against the Cavs, Grizzlies, Hawks, Knicks and Suns — five of the worst six teams in the NBA — flipped to wins, LA would be sitting at 36-27, good for the seventh seed ahead of the Clippers and just behind the Jazz.
Instead, the Lakers must close the gap with the seventh-toughest remaining schedule, according to Tankathon, and only six of their final 19 games coming against teams with records under .500.
FiveThirtyEight’s latest projections give the Lakers an eight percent chance of reaching the postseason. Los Angeles needs roughly 44 wins to secure a coveted playoff spot, meaning it would need to rattle off a 14-5 record to close the regular season.
James has reached the playoffs 13 seasons in a row, so he can’t be ruled out until his team is mathematically eliminated. But it’s more likely than not he will be sitting at home when the first round begins.
The LA blame would have landed on the back burner (at least for a moment) if the Lakers had simply checked a few more boxes against bad teams. Los Angeles didn’t beat ’em, so now it will have to join ’em — at the NBA Draft lottery.
